昆明理工大学电力工程学院,昆明,650500
收稿:2025-12-26,
纸质出版:2026
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陈世轲, 张维, 李玉洪, 等. 融合多源特征的Dual-MTSA超短期风电功率预测[J]. 高电压技术, 2026,52(7):3243-3255.
CHEN Shike, ZHANG Wei, LI Yuhong, et al. 融合多源特征的Dual-MTSA超短期风电功率预测[J]. 2026, 52(7): 3243-3255.
陈世轲, 张维, 李玉洪, 等. 融合多源特征的Dual-MTSA超短期风电功率预测[J]. 高电压技术, 2026,52(7):3243-3255. DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20251121.
CHEN Shike, ZHANG Wei, LI Yuhong, et al. 融合多源特征的Dual-MTSA超短期风电功率预测[J]. 2026, 52(7): 3243-3255. DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20251121.
随着大规模风电并网比例不断提升,其输出的高度非线性与多尺度振荡特征,以及数据缺失与异常值干扰,给超短期功率预测带来严峻挑战。为此该文提出了一种基于数据清洗填补、混合分解与深度学习融合的超短期风电功率预测模型。首先采用三次埃尔米特插值填补缺失值,结合最小协方差行列式与马氏距离检测异常点,再通过随机森林回归修复异常点,确保输入数据的一致性;然后利用最大互信息系数(maximal information coefficient
MIC)和Spearman相关性分析筛选关键气象因素构建环境特征矩阵,并通过跳变模态分解(jump plus AM-FM mode decomposition
JMD)与变分模态分解(variational mode decomposition
VMD)提取多尺度功率模态分量,充分剖析信号的频谱结构并构造功率特征矩阵,接着将两个特征矩阵输入Dual‑MTSA深度学习模型。模型将TKAN模块融入Mamba模块的选择性状态空间后,利用Mamba模块的线性时间复杂度优势高效捕捉跨时间点与跨变量的长程依赖,同时借助B样条核与门控融合机制精细刻画高频振荡与低频趋势;利用自注意力模块(self-attention
SA)对上述多源、多尺度特征进行全局加权重标定,并在全连接映射层生成最终的15 min~3 h超短期功率预测结果。实证结果表明,该方法相较对比模型有效降低预测误差,显著提升预测精度与鲁棒性。
With the ever‑increasing grid integration of large‑scale wind power
its pronounced nonlinearity
multi‑scale oscillations
and issues of missing or anomalous data pose serious challenges to ultra‑short‑term power forecasting. To address these issues
this paper presents an ultra‑short‑term wind power forecasting framework that integrates data cleansing and imputation
hybrid signal decomposition
and deep learning. First
missing values are recovered via cubic Hermite interpolation; anomalies are detected using the minimum covariance determinant and Mahalanobis distance and subsequently corrected with a random forest regressor to ensure data consistency. Then
the maximal information coefficient (MIC) and Spearman’s correlation analysis are employed to select key meteorological variables and construct an environmental feature matrix
meanwhile
the jump‑plus AM‑FM mode decomposition (JMD) and variational mode decomposition (VMD) are used to extract multi‑scale power components to thoroughly dissect the signals’ spectral structure and form a power feature matrix. These two feature matrices are then fed into a Dual‑MTSA deep learning model. Within its encoder
TKAN is embedded into Mamba’s selective state‑space framework
and the Mamba’s linear‑time complexity is used to efficiently capture long‑range dependencies across both time steps and variables. Moreover
a B‑spline kernel with gated fusion is utilized to finely represent high‑frequency oscillations and low‑frequency trends. A self‑attention module is then used to globally recalibrate these multi‑source
multi‑scale features
and a final fully connected mapping layer generates ultra‑short‑term forecasts spanning 15 minutes to 3 hours. Empirical results demonstrate that the proposed method can be used to effectively reduce the prediction errors and significantly improves the prediction accuracy and robustness when compared with the benchmark models.
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