1. 山东大学电气工程学院,济南,250061
2. 山东省数字智慧能源创新重点实验室,济南,250061
3. 国网江苏省电力有限公司电力科学研究院,南京,211103
收稿:2026-05-31,
纸质出版:2026
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杨宝龙, 杨明, 卜强生, 等. 多预测场景模型动态迁移的海量台区分布式光伏功率预测方法[J]. 高电压技术, 2026,52(5):2420-2429.
YANG Baolong, YANG Ming, BU Qiangsheng, et al. 多预测场景模型动态迁移的海量台区分布式光伏功率预测方法[J]. 2026, 52(5): 2420-2429.
杨宝龙, 杨明, 卜强生, 等. 多预测场景模型动态迁移的海量台区分布式光伏功率预测方法[J]. 高电压技术, 2026,52(5):2420-2429. DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20241976.
YANG Baolong, YANG Ming, BU Qiangsheng, et al. 多预测场景模型动态迁移的海量台区分布式光伏功率预测方法[J]. 2026, 52(5): 2420-2429. DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20241976.
海量分布式光伏的不确定性增大了配电网调控的难度,准确的台区分布式光伏功率预测可以为有源配电网的优化运行提供更全面的信息支撑。为解决海量台区分布式光伏功率预测建模成本过高的问题,提出一种多预测场景模型动态迁移的台区分布式光伏功率预测方法。首先,融合各台区的高质量数据以构建源域样本集,提出考虑不同天气预测场景的Informer基础源域模型,有效挖掘不同天气场景气象到功率的共有映射特征;然后,为增强模型的适配性,根据待预测日的气象特征,为每个台区动态匹配对应天气场景下的基础源域模型;最后,构建基于基础源域模型关键层参数微调的迁移学习预测技术,通过历史相似日动态挖掘各台区的个性出力特征,提升预测结果的针对性。通过对某地20个台区分布式光伏在同等实验环境下进行测算,结果表明:该方法与台区分布式光伏单独建模相比,不仅预测精度有所提升,预测效率更是显著提高,证明了该方法在解决大规模台区分布式光伏功率预测问题方面具有显著优势。
The uncertainty of large-scale distributed photovoltaic (DPV) systems increases the difficulty in controlling the distribution network. Accurate power forecasting of DPV in substation areas can provide more comprehensive information supports for the optimized operation of active distribution networks. To address the high modeling cost of large-scale DPV power forecasting in substation areas
a dynamic transfer learning method for DPV power forecasting based on multiple predictive scenario models is proposed. First
high-quality data from various substation areas are integrated to construct the source domain sample set
and an Informer-based source domain model that considers different weather forecasting scenarios is introduced to effectively explore the shared mapping features between meteorological conditions and power output under different weather scenarios. Then
to enhance model adaptability
an appropriate source domain model for each substation area is dynamically selected based on the meteorological features of the day to be forecasted. Finally
a transfer learning forecasting technique based on fine-tuning key layer parameters of the source domain model is developed. By dynamically mining the individual output characteristics of each substation area from historical similar days
the method improves the targeting of the forecasting results. The results of forecasting DPV power for 20 substation areas in the same experimental environment show that
compared with individual modeling of each substation area
this method can be adopted to not only improve prediction accuracy but also significantly enhance prediction efficiency
demonstrating its significant advantages in solving the problem of large-scale DPV power forecasting in substation areas.
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