随着大规模风电并网比例不断提升,其输出的高度非线性与多尺度振荡特征,以及数据缺失与异常值干扰,给超短期功率预测带来严峻挑战。为此该文提出了一种基于数据清洗填补、混合分解与深度学习融合的超短期风电功率预测模型。首先采用三次埃尔米特插值填补缺失值,结合最小协方差行列式与马氏距离检测异常点,再通过随机森林回归修复异常点,确保输入数据的一致性;然后利用最大互信息系数(maximal information coefficient
MIC)和Spearman相关性分析筛选关键气象因素构建环境特征矩阵,并通过跳变模态分解(jump plus AM-FM mode decomposition
With the ever‑increasing grid integration of large‑scale wind power
its pronounced nonlinearity
multi‑scale oscillations
and issues of missing or anomalous data pose serious challenges to ultra‑short‑term power forecasting. To address these issues
this paper presents an ultra‑short‑term wind power forecasting framework that integrates data cleansing and imputation
hybrid signal decomposition
and deep learning. First
missing values are recovered via cubic Hermite interpolation; anomalies are detected using the minimum covariance determinant and Mahalanobis distance and subsequently corrected with a random forest regressor to ensure data consistency. Then
the maximal information coefficient (MIC) and Spearman’s correlation analysis are employed to select key meteorological variables and construct an environmental feature matrix
meanwhile
the jump‑plus AM‑FM mode decomposition (JMD) and variational mode decomposition (VMD) are used to extract multi‑scale power components to thoroughly dissect the signals’ spectral structure and form a power feature matrix. These two feature matrices are then fed into a Dual‑MTSA deep learning model. Within its encoder
TKAN is embedded into Mamba’s selective state‑space framework
and the Mamba’s linear‑time complexity is used to efficiently capture long‑range dependencies across both time steps and variables. Moreover
a B‑spline kernel with gated fusion is utilized to finely represent high‑frequency oscillations and low‑frequency trends. A self‑attention module is then used to globally recalibrate these multi‑source
multi‑scale features
and a final fully connected mapping layer generates ultra‑short‑term forecasts spanning 15 minutes to 3 hours. Empirical results demonstrate that the proposed method can be used to effectively reduce the prediction errors and significantly improves the prediction accuracy and robustness when compared with the benchmark models.