1. 浙江省工程勘察设计院集团有限公司
2. 中国地质大学(武汉)工程学院
纸质出版:2025
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卢操, 晏鄂川, 陈侠廷, 等. 区域滑坡灾害降雨预警的I-D-M阈值模型研究[J]. 地质科技通报, 2025,44(6):157-165.
卢操, 晏鄂川, 陈侠廷, et al. 区域滑坡灾害降雨预警的I-D-M阈值模型研究[J]. Bulletin of Geological Science and Technology, 2025, 44(6): 157-165.
卢操, 晏鄂川, 陈侠廷, 等. 区域滑坡灾害降雨预警的I-D-M阈值模型研究[J]. 地质科技通报, 2025,44(6):157-165. DOI: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.tb20250216.
卢操, 晏鄂川, 陈侠廷, et al. 区域滑坡灾害降雨预警的I-D-M阈值模型研究[J]. Bulletin of Geological Science and Technology, 2025, 44(6): 157-165. DOI: 10.19509/j.cnki.dzkq.tb20250216.
区域滑坡灾害降雨预警是近年来研究的热点问题,其难点在于拟定降雨阈值模型。基于逐时雨量数据引入峰值雨量(M),构建了滑坡灾害的三维表征降雨阈值模型,可为区域滑坡灾害降雨预警提供科学依据。在浙江省宁波市慈溪市、江北区、镇海区北部3区2010-2022年期间的104处降雨型滑坡事件基础上开展了研究。首先,利用泰森多边形划分单元网格方法划定与灾害相关联的雨量站空间分布,揭示滑坡灾害的有效降雨特征信息;其次,基于滑坡事件编录构建灾害发生时的逐时降雨强度-降雨历时(I-D)阈值模型,并采用分位数回归方法划分临界阈值曲线;最后,针对I-D阈值模型不足引入峰值雨量(M)改进提出I-D-M模型。以受试者工作特征曲线(receiver operating characteristic,简称ROC)和滑坡实例对比检验上述2种模型精度,据此确定最优阈值模型作为本地区降雨预警判据。结果表明,考虑峰值雨量(M).的I-D-M阈值模型相比于I-D模型具有更高的预警精度,滑坡发生概率黄色预警提高8%,橙色预警提高17%,红色预警提高16%,表明峰值雨量对滑坡的发生具有重要影响;基于分位数回归的I-D-M阈值模型可作为本地区滑坡灾害红、橙、黄三级降雨预警的判据。研究成果提出的三维表征降雨阈值模型对区域滑坡灾害降雨预警具有理论指导意义。
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