基于拓展Budyko方程的MOPEX流域径流变化归因分析

朱泓宇; 董前进; 杨子浩

doi:10.14188/j.1671-8844.2025.0253

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基于拓展Budyko方程的MOPEX流域径流变化归因分析

更新时间：2026-10-15

- 基于拓展Budyko方程的MOPEX流域径流变化归因分析
- Runoff Change Attribution in MOPEX Basins Based on an Extended Budyko Equation
- 武汉大学学报（工学版） 2026年页码：1-11
- 作者机构：
  
  武汉大学水资源工程与调度全国重点实验室，湖北武汉 430072
- 作者简介：
  
  朱泓宇（2000-），男，主要从事水资源规划与管理研究，E-mail:2632157091@qq.com；
  董前进（1979-），男，教授，主要从事水文气象、水资源规划与管理等研究，E-mail: dqjin@whu.edu.cn；
- 基金信息：
  
  国家自然科学基金项目(52279024;52261145744;51979198)
- DOI：10.14188/j.1671-8844.2025.0253
  中图分类号： TV121
- 网络首发：2026-10-15，
- 稿件说明：
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朱泓宇, 董前进, 杨子浩. 基于拓展Budyko方程的MOPEX流域径流变化归因分析[J/OL]. 武汉大学学报（工学版）, 2026,1-11.

ZHU Hongyu, DONG Qianjin, YANG Zihao. Runoff Change Attribution in MOPEX Basins Based on an Extended Budyko Equation[J/OL]. Engineering Journal of Wuhan University, 2026, 1-11.
朱泓宇, 董前进, 杨子浩. 基于拓展Budyko方程的MOPEX流域径流变化归因分析[J/OL]. 武汉大学学报（工学版）, 2026,1-11. DOI： 10.14188/j.1671-8844.2025.0253.

ZHU Hongyu, DONG Qianjin, YANG Zihao. Runoff Change Attribution in MOPEX Basins Based on an Extended Budyko Equation[J/OL]. Engineering Journal of Wuhan University, 2026, 1-11. DOI： 10.14188/j.1671-8844.2025.0253.

摘要

为提升Budyko模型在不同气候背景和流域条件下的适应性，本文以MOPEX数据集中252个流域为研究对象，通过引入水储量变化量来拓展Budyko方程，并探索水储量变化对基于Budyko方程径流模拟精度的影响；基于拓展的Budyko方程，采用分解法量化1949~2001年气候因素和人类活动对MOPEX数据集中选定流域的累积影响。结果表明：考虑水储量变化后，不同形式的Budyko方程（Fu方程、Choudhury-Yang方程和Wang-Tang方程）相应的纳什效率系数NSE平均值提高了约0.1；基于Choudhury-Yang方程选取流域中的多数流域（69.8%）受气候变化驱动更为显著，其它流域（30.2%）径流变化受人类活动影响明显。该研究将为美国及中国相似流域的水资源管理提供科学依据。

Abstract

To improve the adaptability of the Budyko model under varying climatic and watershed conditions

this study investigates 252 basins from the MOPEX dataset. By introducing changes in water storage

the Budyko equation is extended to assess the impact of water storage variation on runoff simulation accuracy. Using the extended Budyko framework

we apply a decomposition method to quantify the cumulative impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff during the period 1949–2001 in the selected MOPEX basins. Results show that incorporating water storage changes increases the average Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) by approximately 0.1 for various Budyko-type formulations (Fu

Choudhury–Yang

and Wang–Tang equations). Based on the Choudhury–Yang equation

the majority of basins (69.8%) are dominated by climate change in driving runoff variation

while in the remaining 30.2% of basins

human activities exert a more pronounced influence. This study provides scientific support for water resource management in regions of the United States and China with similar hydrological and climatic characteristics.

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references

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