红海袭击事件波及的全球战略物资海运网络变化分析

禹佳宁; 方志祥; 胡筱渊; 余红楚; 王中元

doi:10.13203/j.whugis20240099

您当前的位置：

首页 >

文章列表页 >

红海袭击事件波及的全球战略物资海运网络变化分析

地图制图学与地理信息工程 | 更新时间：2026-11-05

- 红海袭击事件波及的全球战略物资海运网络变化分析
- Analysis of Changes in Maritime Transport Networks for Strategic Materials Affected by Attacks in the Red Sea
- 武汉大学学报（信息科学版） 2026年51卷第4期页码：852-865
- 作者机构：
  
  1.武汉大学测绘遥感信息工程全国重点实验室，湖北武汉，430079
  2.中交通信大数据（上海）科技有限公司，上海，200000
  3.武汉理工大学航运学院，湖北武汉，430079
  4.南京工业大学测绘科学与技术学院，江苏南京，210000
- 作者简介：
  
  禹佳宁，博士生，研究方向为全球海运分析。yujianing@whu.edu.cn
  方志祥，博士，教授。zxfang@whu.edu.cn
- 基金信息：
  
  国家重点研发计划(2023YFB3906703)
- DOI：10.13203/j.whugis20240099
  中图分类号： P208
- 收稿：2024-09-11，
  
  纸质出版：2026-04-05
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
禹佳宁,方志祥,胡筱渊，等.红海袭击事件波及的全球战略物资海运网络变化分析[J].武汉大学学报（信息科学版）,2026,51(4):852-865.

YU Jianing,FANG Zhixiang,HU Xiaoyuan,et al.Analysis of Changes in Maritime Transport Networks for Strategic Materials Affected by Attacks in the Red Sea[J].Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University,2026,51(4):852-865.
禹佳宁,方志祥,胡筱渊，等.红海袭击事件波及的全球战略物资海运网络变化分析[J].武汉大学学报（信息科学版）,2026,51(4):852-865. DOI：10.13203/j.whugis20240099

YU Jianing,FANG Zhixiang,HU Xiaoyuan,et al.Analysis of Changes in Maritime Transport Networks for Strategic Materials Affected by Attacks in the Red Sea[J].Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University,2026,51(4):852-865. DOI：10.13203/j.whugis20240099

摘要

海运是全球贸易的主要运输方式，其通行安全对国际贸易体系的稳定运行至关重要。红海海域袭击事件严重威胁了该关键航道的通行安全，对全球战略物资供应链产生了较大影响。以全球船舶自动识别系统数据为基础，构建了涉及红海的典型全球战略物资海运网络，从海运航线、战略物资以及海运网络等角度，分析了红海袭击事件对战略物资海运网络演变的影响。研究结果表明：在航线变化方面，亚洲和非洲国家日均航次数量未受明显影响，其他大洲国家的航次数量普遍呈下降趋势，且受影响国家的平均降幅显著高于未受影响国家；在战略物资方面，铁矿石、原油和液化石油气(liquefied petroleum gas，LPG)的运输量显著减少，液化天然气（liquefied natural gas，LNG）的日均运输量未受影响；在海运网络演变层面，不同的战略物资网络呈现出了不同的变化特征，其中铁矿石运输网络稳定性较高，能源类物资(LNG和LPG)呈现出了中等程度的稳定性，粮食海运网络的波动性最强。研究结果有助于理解突发地缘政治事件对国际战略物资流动和全球供应链稳定性的潜在影响，为全球化背景下保障国际贸易通道安全和提升供应链稳定性提供参考。

Abstract

Objectives

As a critical mode of transportation for global trade

the security of maritime shipping is essential to international commerce. Recent armed conflicts in the Red Sea region have significantly endangered safe passage through this vital shipping lane and have had profound effects on the global supply chain of strategic commodities. Given the Red Sea's strategic position linking Asia

Europe

and Africa

disruptions in this region could rapidly propagate across interconnected maritime networks

triggering cascading effects on global logistics systems and increasing systemic risks in international trade. Moreover

such disruptions could lead to route detours

increased transportation costs

and delays

thereby further exacerbating supply chain instability. Although an increasing volume of research has focused on tracking and analyzing the long-term impacts of the shipping system following major events

there remained an urgent need to capture and analyze real-time conflicts. Such research was critical for enabling timely responses to the challenges confronting the maritime system

thus helping to mitigate negative impacts. In particular

the ability to conduct near-real-time monitoring and short-term impact assessment was essential for identifying early-stage disruptions and supporting rapid operational and policy responses. This shift from ex-post analysis to near-real-time evaluation represented an important advancement in maritime risk analysis.

Methods

First

changes in the number of shipping routes were analyzed to evaluate the impact on countries across different geographic regions and geopolitical contexts

providing a macroscopic perspective on the redistribution of maritime flows. Second

shifts in the transport volume of five strategic materials were assessed by incorporating material-specific weights

enabling the evaluation of both quantity changes and their relative importance in global trade. Furthermore

changes in the maritime network of strategic materials were examined to identify affected nodes and edges. Network evolution patterns were then analyzed using key indicators

including network connectivity

path efficiency

and node centrality

to evaluate structural robustness and functional performance under external shocks.

Results

The results showed that

in terms of affected maritime routes

there was no decline in the average daily number of voyages for countries in Asia and Africa

while all other continents experienced a decreasing trend. The rate of decline among affected countries was notably more significant than that among unaffected ones. This suggested that geographic proximity

trade intensity

and reliance on the Red Sea corridor played critical roles in determining the extent of disruption experienced by different regions. From the perspective of strategic materials

iron

crude oil

and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) shipments dominated the traffic. Except for liquefied natural gas (LNG)

which exhibited an increase in average daily traffic

other strategic materials displayed a similar downward trend by the end of the study period. The contrasting trend observed for LNG might have reflected adaptive rerouting strategies

shifts in energy demand structures

or substitution effects within global energy supply chains. At the network evolution level

the core nodes of the maritime network remained stable in the face of shocks. This stability indicated the resilience of major hub ports and their continued central role in sustaining global connectivity despite regional disruptions. Different strategic material networks demonstrated distinct adaptation patterns

with grain and LPG networks showing an increase in the average shortest path length compared to the pre-shock period

while crude oil

LPG

and iron ore networks exhibited a more aggregated and short-distance adaptation pattern. The increase in path length suggested reduced transport efficiency and potential detours

whereas aggregation indicated a tendency toward regionalization under constraints. Iron ore demonstrated high stability

energy materials (LNG

LPG

and crude oil) exhibited moderate stability

and the food maritime network was the most volatile. These differences highlighted the heterogeneous resilience of commodity-specific transport networks and reflected variations in supply chain flexibility and substitution capacity. In summary

we captured and analyzed the impacts of unforeseen events on the maritime transport network in a timely manner by integrating data from multiple sources and employing a limited time window and geographic scope.

Conclusions

Compared with conventional post-event studies

this approach enabled faster detection of disruptions

improved the responsiveness of analytical frameworks

and provided more actionable insights for policymakers and industry stakeholders. Furthermore

it offered a scalable methodology for assessing similar geopolitical shocks in other critical transport corridors. The assessment revealed significant disruptions in global transport patterns in the Red Sea region

highlighting the importance of maintaining global trade flows and supply chain stability in the context of globalization. Overall

this study contributes to a deeper understanding of maritime network resilience and provides empirical support for enhancing risk management strategies in global shipping systems.

关键词

Keywords

references

VALENTINE V F ， BENAMARA H ， HOFFMANN J . Maritime Transport and International Seaborne Trade ［J］. Maritime Policy & Management ， 2013 ， 40 （ 3 ）： 226 - 242 .

ROUSSET L ， DUCRUET C . Disruptions in Spatial Networks： A Comparative Study of Major Shocks Affecting Ports and Shipping Patterns ［J］. Networks and Spatial Economics ， 2020 ， 20 （ 2 ）： 423 - 447 .

JARUMANEEROJ P ， RAMUDHIN A ， BARNETT LAWTON J . A Connectivity-Based Approach to Evaluating Port Importance in the Global Container Shipping Network ［J］. Maritime Economics & Logistics ， 2023 ， 25 （ 3 ）： 602 - 622 .

SAITO T ， SHIBASAKI R ， MURAKAMI S ， et al . Global Maritime Container Shipping Networks 1969—1981： Emergence of Container Shipping and Reopening of the Suez Canal ［J］. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering ， 2022 ， 10 （ 5 ）： 602 .

FANG Z X ， YU H C ， LU F ， et al . Maritime Network Dynamics Before and After International Events ［J］. Journal of Geographical Sciences ， 2018 ， 28 （ 7 ）： 937 - 956 .

叶世榕，罗歆琪，南阳，等 . 一种改进的星载GNSS-R卷积神经网络海冰检测方法［J］. 武汉大学学报（信息科学版）， 2024 ， 49 （ 1 ）： 90 - 99 .

YE Shirong ， LUO Xinqi ， NAN Yang ， et al . An Improved Sea Ice Detection Method Based on Spaceborne GNSS-R Using CNN ［J］. Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University ， 2024 ， 49 （ 1 ）： 90 - 99 .

WAN C P ， YAN X P ， ZHANG D ， et al . Analysis of Risk Factors Influencing the Safety of Maritime Container Supply Chains ［J］. International Journal of Shipping and Transport Logistics ， 2019 ， 11 （ 6 ）： 476 .

OLIVA S ， LAZZERETTI L . Adaptation， Adaptability and Resilience： The Recovery of Kobe After the Great Hanshin Earthquake of 1995 ［J］. European Planning Studies ， 2017 ， 25 （ 1 ）： 67 - 87 .

PAUL J A ， MALONI M J . Modeling the Effects of Port Disasters ［J］. Maritime Economics & Logistics ， 2010 ， 12 （ 2 ）： 127 - 146 .

GAO T H ， LU J . The Impacts of Strait and Canal Blockages on the Transportation Costs of the Chinese Fleet in the Shipping Network ［J］. Maritime Policy & Management ， 2019 ， 46 （ 6 ）： 669 - 686 .

GODOY L A . Performance of Storage Tanks in Oil Facilities Damaged by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita ［J］. Journal of Performance of Constructed Facilities ， 2007 ， 21 （ 6 ）： 441 - 449 .

WACHTENDORF T ， BROWN B ， HOLGUIN-VERAS J . Catastrophe Characteristics and Their Impact on Critical Supply Chains： Problematizing Materiel Convergence and Management Following Hurricane Katrina ［J］. Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management ， 2013 ， 10 （ 2 ）： 497 - 520 .

SHEN Z C ， XU X L ， LI J H ， et al . Vulnerability of the Maritime Network to Tropical Cyclones in the Northwest Pacific and the Northern Indian Ocean ［J］. Sustainability ， 2019 ， 11 （ 21 ）： 6176 .

XU H T ， ITOH H . Density Economies and Transport Geography： Evidence from the Container Shipping Industry ［J］. Journal of Urban Economics ， 2018 ， 105 ： 121 - 132 .

CAO X H ， LAM J S L . Simulation-Based Catastrophe-Induced Port Loss Estimation ［J］. Reliability Engineering & System Safety ， 2018 ， 175 ： 1 - 12 .

ROSE A ， WEI D . Estimating the Economic Consequences of a Port Shutdown： The Special Role of Resilience ［J］. Economic Systems Research ， 2013 ， 25 （ 2 ）： 212 - 232 .

WU D ， WANG N ， YU A Q ， et al . Vulnerability Analysis of Global Container Shipping Liner Network Based on Main Channel Disruption ［J］. Maritime Policy & Management ， 2019 ， 46 （ 4 ）： 394 - 409 .

VILJOEN N M ， JOUBERT J W . The Vulnerability of the Global Container Shipping Network to Targeted Link Disruption ［J］. Physica A： Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications ， 2016 ， 462 ： 396 - 409 .

GUO J K ， WANG S B ， WANG D D ， et al . Spatial Structural Pattern and Vulnerability of China-Japan-Korea Shipping Network ［J］. Chinese Geographical Science ， 2017 ， 27 （ 5 ）： 697 - 708 .

WANG N ， WU N ， DONG L L ， et al . A Study of the Temporal Robustness of the Growing Global Container-Shipping Network ［J］. Scientific Reports ， 2016 ， 6 ： 34217 .

DUCRUET C ， NOTTEBOOM T . The Worldwide Maritime Network of Container Shipping： Spatial Structure and Regional Dynamics ［J］. Global Networks ， 2012 ， 12 （ 3 ）： 395 - 423 .

YANG Z L ， QU Z . Quantitative Maritime Security Assessment： A 2020 Vision ［J］. IMA Journal of Management Mathematics ， 2016 ， 27 （ 4 ）： 453 - 470 .

SHAW D R ， GRAINGER A ， ACHUTHAN K . Multi-level Port Resilience Planning in the UK： How Can Information Sharing Be Made Easier？［J］. Technological Forecasting and Social Change ， 2017 ， 121 ： 126 - 138 .

ASADABADI A ， MILLER-HOOKS E . Co-Opetition in Enhancing Global Port Network Resiliency： A Multi-leader， Common-Follower Game Theoretic Approach ［J］. Transportation Research Part B： Methodological ， 2018 ， 108 ： 281 - 298 .

杨怡，郭雅，鞠星，等 . 遥探境外重要海峡通道：曼德海峡［J］. 中国矿业， 2023 ， 32 （ S1 ）： 99 - 102 .

YANG Yi ， GUO Ya ， JU Xing ， et al . Remote Exploration of the Important Overseas Channel： Mande Strait ［J］. China Mining Magazine ， 2023 ， 32 （ S1 ）： 99 - 102 .

GUO J K ， GUO S ， LÜ J . Potential Spatial Effects of Opening Arctic Shipping Routes on the Shipping Network of Ports Between China and Europe ［J］. Marine Policy ， 2022 ， 136 ： 104885 .

红海局势持续紧张全球供应链风险加剧［EB/OL］. ［ 2024-03-04 ］. https：//baijiahao.baidu.com/s id=1791465405832074169&wfr=spider&for=pc https://baijiahao.baidu.com/sid=1791465405832074169&wfr=spider&for=pc .

Continued Tensions in The Red Sea Heighten Risks to The Global Supply Chain ［EB/OL］. ［ 2024-03-04 ］. https：//baijiahao.baidu.com/s id=1791465405 https://baijiahao.baidu.com/sid=1791465405

832074169&wfr=spider&for=pc .

郭宁，熊伟，欧阳雪，等 . 时空轨迹多层级相似子段匹配方法［J］. 武汉大学学报（信息科学版）， 2022 ， 47 （ 9 ）： 1390 - 1397 .

GUO Ning ， XIONG Wei ， OUYANG Xue ， et al . Multi-level Similarity Sub-Segment Matching Method for Spatiotemporal Trajectory ［J］. Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University ， 2022 ， 47 （ 9 ）： 1390 - 1397 .

盛宇裕，毕硕本，范京津，等 . 运用交通运行状况指标分析交通热点时空模式［J］. 武汉大学学报（信息科学版）， 2021 ， 46 （ 5 ）： 746 - 754 .

SHENG Yuyu ， BI Shuoben ， FAN Jingjin ， et al . Analyzing Spatiotemporal Patterns of Traffic Hotspots Using Traffic Operation Indicators ［J］. Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University ， 2021 ， 46 （ 5 ）： 746 - 754 .

李振洪，王建伟，胡羽丰，等 . 大范围洪涝灾害影响下的交通网受损快速评估［J］. 武汉大学学报（信息科学版）， 2023 ， 48 （ 7 ）： 1039 - 1049 .

LI Zhenhong ， WANG Jianwei ， HU Yufeng ， et al . Rapid Assessment of Traffic Inefficiency Under Flood Scenarios over Wide Regions ［J］. Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University ， 2023 ， 48 （ 7 ）： 1039 - 1049 .

万幼，刘耀林 . 基于地理加权中心节点距离的网络社区发现算法［J］. 武汉大学学报（信息科学版）， 2019 ， 44 （ 10 ）： 1545 - 1552 .

WAN You ， LIU Yaolin . Community Detection Algorithm Based on Geographical Weighted Central Node Distance ［J］. Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University ， 2019 ， 44 （ 10 ）： 1545 - 1552 .

王映雪，李少梅，任丽秋，等 . 面向特征的网络空间点群要素自动综合方法［J］. 武汉大学学报（信息科学版）， 2021 ， 46 （ 3 ）： 427 - 433 .

WANG Yingxue ， LI Shaomei ， REN Liqiu ， et al . Automatic Generalization Methods of Cyberspace Point Cluster Features Considering Characteristics ［J］. Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University ， 2021 ， 46 （ 3 ）： 427 - 433 .

浏览量

下载量

CSCD

文章被引用时，请邮件提醒。

提交

工具集

关联资源

几何与频域双约束的单步扩散海底地形超分辨率重建方法

多尺度地理空间数据更新方法概述

关于智慧海图的思考

大众智能终端GNSS有意干扰检测技术研究现状与展望

呼包鄂榆城市群草地脆弱性时空演变及因子可解释性分析