系统视域下新时代国家安全风险评估体系与模型构建研究

徐宗煌

doi:10.1051/wujns/2026315507

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系统视域下新时代国家安全风险评估体系与模型构建研究

Information Technology | 更新时间：2026-10-29

- 系统视域下新时代国家安全风险评估体系与模型构建研究
- Construction of National Security Risk Assessment System and Model in the New Era from the Perspective of System
- 武汉大学学报自然科学英文版 2026年31卷第5期页码：507-522
- 作者机构：
  
  1.福建师范大学社会历史学院，福建福州 350117
  2.南京大学信息管理学院，江苏南京 210023
- 作者简介：
  
  XU Zonghuang, male, Lecturer, Ph.D., research direction: national security, scientific and technological evaluation, big data analysis and mathematical modeling. E-mail: zhxu@fjnu.edu.cn
- 基金信息：
  
  the Postgraduate Research & Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province(KYCX24_0102)
- DOI：10.1051/wujns/2026315507
  中图分类号： N94
- 收稿：2025-05-26，
  
  纸质出版：2026-10-24
- 稿件说明：
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徐宗煌.系统视域下新时代国家安全风险评估体系与模型构建研究[J].武汉大学学报自然科学英文版,2026,31(05):507-522.

XU Zonghuang. Construction of National Security Risk Assessment System and Model in the New Era from the Perspective of System[J]. Wuhan Univ J of Nat Sci, 2026, 31(5): 507-522.
徐宗煌.系统视域下新时代国家安全风险评估体系与模型构建研究[J].武汉大学学报自然科学英文版,2026,31(05):507-522. DOI： 10.1051/wujns/2026315507.

XU Zonghuang. Construction of National Security Risk Assessment System and Model in the New Era from the Perspective of System[J]. Wuhan Univ J of Nat Sci, 2026, 31(5): 507-522. DOI： 10.1051/wujns/2026315507.

摘要

构建符合新时代要求的国家安全风险评估指标体系，对于完善国家安全治理体系、精准研判安全风险态势、提升安全应对能力具有重要意义。本文基于系统论视角，以新时代总体国家安全观为指导，从政治、军事、经济、文化、社会、科技、网络、生态、资源、生物以及海外利益共11个领域出发，构建了一套系统化且科学合理的国家安全风险评估框架。通过运用博弈论组合赋权法，将层次分析法、序关系分析法、熵值取权法和CRITIC法集成优化，获取各指标的系统最优权重；同时，综合优劣解距离、主成分分析、秩和比、灰色关联度分析和模拟退火优化投影寻踪评估模型的排序结果与得分差异，应用模糊Borda组合评估模型构建了国家安全风险的评估模型。结果表明，随着国家政权、人民福祉、经济社会可持续发展和科技水平的提升，2014-2023年我国总体国家安全风险呈下降趋势。所构建的系统模型可为国家安全风险的科学评估与管理提供理论依据和方法支撑，为应对复杂多变的安全挑战提供决策参考。

Abstract

Constructing a national security risk assessment index system for the new era is crucial for improving the national security framework

understanding risk dynamics

and enhancing response capabilities. This study adopts a systems theory perspective

guided by the holistic approach to national security

and develops a comprehensive and scientific index system spanning 11 dimensions: politics

military

economy

culture

society

science and technology

cyber

ecology

resources

biology

and overseas interests. By applying a game theory combination weighting (GTCW) model that integrates the analytic hierarchy process (AHP)

order relationship analysis (ORA)

entropy weighting (EW)

and criteria importance through intercriteria correlation (CRITIC) methods

the study determines optimal weights for each indicator in the system. Additionally

combining results from technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS)

principal component analysis (PCA)

rank-sum ratio (RSR)

grey relational analysis (GRA)

and simulated annealing optimized projection pursuit (SAO-PP)

a fuzzy Borda model was used to construct a combination assessment model for national security risks. The results indicate that from 2014 to 2023

China's overall national security risk has shown a declining trend in line with rising levels of security in state governance

public welfare

socio-economic sustainability

and technological advancement. This system model provides theoretical guidance and methodological support for national security risk analysis and management

aiding in maintaining national stability and implementing strategic objectives under new circumstances.

关键词

Keywords

references

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