ZHONG Xiuwen,SHAO Zhenfeng.Analysis of Spatio Temporal Dynamics and Their Driving Forces of Ecological Land in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area from 1990 to 2020[J].Journal of Geomatics,2026,51(5):138-145
ZHONG Xiuwen,SHAO Zhenfeng.Analysis of Spatio Temporal Dynamics and Their Driving Forces of Ecological Land in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area from 1990 to 2020[J].Journal of Geomatics,2026,51(5):138-145DOI: 10.14188/j.2095-6045.20260087.
Analysis of Spatio Temporal Dynamics and Their Driving Forces of Ecological Land in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area from 1990 to 2020
In recent years, ecological land in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) has continuously declined, leading to increased ecological risks. Analyzing driving forces and simulating ecological land conversion probabilities are essential for the sustainable development of the GBA. This study develops a multidimensional feature set to classify land use in the GBA for 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020, analyzes spatiotemporal land use dynamics, and integrates the geological detector model, an integrated ecological index, and binary logistic regression to identify the driving forces and conversion probability of ecological land. Results indicate: forest, farmland, grassland, and water areas in the GBA have continuously decreased, while construction land has expanded persistently. Farmland represents the largest outflow category, with construction land receiving the most inflow; Elevation, minimum distance to construction land, ecological control lines, GDP density, population density, and road density are the primary drivers of ecological land conversion in the GBA, with minimum distance to construction land and ecological control lines exerting the strongest influence; Ecological land in Dongguan City, Foshan City, Guangzhou City, and the northern part of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region faces high conversion risks.
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