Trend and prediction analysis of the changing disease burden of neonatal sepsis in China and globally from 1990 to 2021

YIN Meile; YIN Yulai; SANG Yanfeng; FU Tianli; TIAN Xiaoling; YANG Hongqun; LIU Yongmei

doi:10.14188/j.1671-8852.2024.0628

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Trend and prediction analysis of the changing disease burden of neonatal sepsis in China and globally from 1990 to 2021

更新时间：2026-11-05

- Trend and prediction analysis of the changing disease burden of neonatal sepsis in China and globally from 1990 to 2021
- Medical Journal of Wuhan University Vol. 46, Issue 10, Pages: 1307-1314(2025)
- 作者机构：
  
  1.承德市中心医院新生儿科河北承德 067000
  2.沧州市中心医院河北沧州 061000
  3.承德市妇幼保健院妇产科河北承德 067000
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.14188/j.1671-8852.2024.0628
  CLC： R722.13⁺1
- Received：20 August 2024，
  
  Published：25 October 2025
- 稿件说明：
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殷美乐,殷雨来,桑艳峰等.1990—2021年中国和全球新生儿败血症疾病负担变化趋势与预测[J].武汉大学学报（医学版）,2025,46(10):1307-1314.

YIN Meile,YIN Yulai,SANG Yanfeng,et al.Trend and prediction analysis of the changing disease burden of neonatal sepsis in China and globally from 1990 to 2021[J].Medical Journal of Wuhan University,2025,46(10):1307-1314.
殷美乐,殷雨来,桑艳峰等.1990—2021年中国和全球新生儿败血症疾病负担变化趋势与预测[J].武汉大学学报（医学版）,2025,46(10):1307-1314. DOI： 10.14188/j.1671-8852.2024.0628.

YIN Meile,YIN Yulai,SANG Yanfeng,et al.Trend and prediction analysis of the changing disease burden of neonatal sepsis in China and globally from 1990 to 2021[J].Medical Journal of Wuhan University,2025,46(10):1307-1314. DOI： 10.14188/j.1671-8852.2024.0628.

摘要

目的

比较分析1990—2021年中国和全球新生儿败血症（NS）的疾病负担变化趋势，涵盖发病率、患病率、死亡率和伤残调整生命年（DALYs）的变化情况，对比和预测未来15年中国与全球的NS疾病负担。

方法

基于1990—2021年全球疾病负担数据库（GBD）的公开数据，分析中国与全球NS发病率、患病率、死亡率及DALYs的变化趋势。使用Joinpoint方法计算平均年百分比变化（AAPC）及其95%置信区间（95%

）评估NS疾病负担的变化趋势，从年龄、性别、时间等多个角度对中国与全球的NS疾病负担进行全面对比，并采用自回归积分移动平均（ARIMA）模型预测未来15年中国与全球NS的疾病负担情况。

结果

1990—2021年，中国NS的年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）从26.069/10万降至16.754/10万，而全球的ASIR从78.980/10万降至62.701/10万。中国的NS年龄标准化患病率（ASPR）从41.220/10万上升至46.488/10万，而全球ASPR从93.545/10万增加至125.865/10万。中国的NS年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）从0.727/10万下降至0.246/10万，而全球ASMR从4.766/10万降至3.756/10万。中国的NS年龄标准化DALY率（ASDR）从76.351/10万降至35.674/10万，而全球的ASDR从450.006/10万降至370.547/10万。中国的ASIR、ASPR、ASMR和ASDR的AAPC分别为-0.7%、1.0%、-0.8%和-0.6%，而全球则分别为-1.4%、0.4%、-3.5%和-2.4%。性别对NS的疾病负担有一定影响，表现为男性新生儿的疾病负担重于女性新生儿，这种性别差异在中国尤为明显。未来15年，中国NS的整体疾病负担预计将继续下降；全球范围内，NS的ASIR可能上升，但ASMR预计将下降；这种变化在男女新生儿群体中表现出一致性。

结论

1990—2021年，中国NS的疾病负担逐渐减轻，而全球的NS疾病负担则呈先加重后减轻的趋势；中国和全球的NS死亡率和DALY均有所下降；男性新生儿的疾病负担较女性新生儿更为严重。

Abstract

Objective

To compare and analyze the trends in the disease burden of neonatal sepsis (NS) in China and globally from 1990 to 2021

covering the changes in incidence

prevalence

mortality

and disability⁃adjusted life years (DALYs)

and to compare and project the disease burden of NS in China and globally in the next 15 years.

Methods

Global Burden of Diseas

e (GBD) database spanning 1990 to 2021 was used to analyze the trends in incidence

prevalence

mortality

and DALYs related to NS in China and globally. The Joinpoint method was used to calculate the average annual percent change (AAPC) and its corresponding 95% confidence interval (95%

) to assess the temporal trends in the burden of NS. A comprehensive comparative analysis of the burden of NS in China and globally was conducted across various dimensions

including age

gender

and period. Moreover

an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was applied to forecast the NS burden in China and globally for the next 15 years.

Results

From 1990 to 2021

the age⁃standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of NS in China declined from 26.069 per 100 000 to 16.754 per 100 000

whereas the global ASIR decreased from 78.980 per 100 000 to 62.701 per 100 000. In China

the age⁃standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of NS increased from 41.220 per 100 000 to 46.488 per 100 000

while globally

the ASPR rose from 93.545 per 100 000 to 125.865 per 100 000. The age⁃standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of NS in China dropped from 0.727 per 100 000 to 0.246 per 100 000

and globally

it decreased from 4.766 per 100 000 to 3.756 per 100 000. The age⁃standardized DALY rate (ASDR) in China fell from 76.351 per 100 000 to 35.674 per 100 000

while the global ASDR declined from 450.006 per 100 000 to 370.547 per 100 000. The AAPCs for ASIR

ASPR

ASMR

and ASDR in China were -0.7%

1.0%

-0.8%

and -0.6%

respectively

compared to -1.4%

0.4%

-3.5%

and -2.4% globally. Gender differences were observed

with male neonates bearing a heavier disease burden than female neonates

a disparity more pronounced in China. Over the next 15 years

the overall burden of NS in China is expected to continue decreasing; however

while the global ASIR may rise

the global ASMR is anticipated to decline. These trends are consistent across both male and female neonates.

Conclusion

Between 1990 and 2021

the disease burden of NS in China progressively lessened

whereas globally

the burden initially increased before subsequently decreasing. The concurrent decline in both mortality and DALYs related to NS in China and globally. A greater disease burden in male neonates compared to female neonates.

关键词

Keywords

references

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