Spatial distribution and future prediction of bankfull discharge in the Ningxia-Inner Mongolia reach of the Yellow River

Guo Wei; Ma Zipu; Huang Hai; An Chenge; Li Pu; Deng Anjun; Guo Qingchao

doi:10.14188/j.1671-8844.2026.0022

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Spatial distribution and future prediction of bankfull discharge in the Ningxia-Inner Mongolia reach of the Yellow River

更新时间：2026-10-15

- Spatial distribution and future prediction of bankfull discharge in the Ningxia-Inner Mongolia reach of the Yellow River
- Engineering Journal of Wuhan University Pages: 1-9(2026)
- 作者机构：
  
  1.宁夏回族自治区水利工程建设中心，银川，750004
  2.中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环与水安全全国重点实验室，北京 100048
  3.中国水利水电科学研究院水利部泥沙科学与北方河流治理重点实验室，北京 100048
  4.华北电力大学水利与水电工程学院, 北京102206
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.14188/j.1671-8844.2026.0022
  CLC： TV147
- Received：16 January 2026，
  
  Online First：15 October 2026，
- 稿件说明：
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Guo Wei, Ma Zipu, Huang Hai, et al. Spatial distribution and future prediction of bankfull discharge in the Ningxia-Inner Mongolia reach of the Yellow River[J/OL]. Engineering Journal of Wuhan University, 2026, 1-9.
DOI：

Guo Wei, Ma Zipu, Huang Hai, et al. Spatial distribution and future prediction of bankfull discharge in the Ningxia-Inner Mongolia reach of the Yellow River[J/OL]. Engineering Journal of Wuhan University, 2026, 1-9. DOI： 10.14188/j.1671-8844.2026.0022.

摘要

平滩流量是表征黄河宁蒙河段过流能力的关键指标，当前对其空间分布规律及未来变化趋势的探讨仍显不足。基于1965–2020年宁蒙河段平滩流量数据，系统揭示了其时空演变规律，并利用2000–202年汛期平均流量与含沙量数据建立了滞后响应模型，预测了未来多情景下的平滩流量。结果表明：近半个世纪以来，宁蒙河段过流能力持续衰退，平滩流量由1965–1986年间的“减‑增‑减”沿程分布模式，转变为1987年后的“先减后增”模式，制约过流能力的瓶颈河段从石嘴山向下游迁移至巴彦高勒‑三湖河口段，其中三湖河口最为显著。这一演变是水沙条件与河道边界共同作用的结果，汛期来水量大幅减少打破了原有水沙平衡，叠加20世纪末以来大规模堤防工程建设对天然河道边界的改变，共同加剧了河道淤积，平滩流量减小。2000年后，在人类活动影响下，系统进入新的相对稳定状态，平滩流量沿程变化可用三次多项式高精度拟合（R²>0.9）。模型预测显示，未来平滩流量按多水少沙、平水平沙、少水多沙的顺序递减；各情形下，下河沿到石嘴山均为平滩流量衰减河段，三湖河口到头道拐均为平滩流量小幅回升段。各情景下三湖河口均为关键瓶颈断面，宁蒙河道治理重点应在石嘴山及以下尤其是三湖河口，以有效提升宁蒙河段整体过流能力。

Abstract

Bankfull discharge serves as a critical metric for characterizing the flow conveyance capacity of the Ningxia–Inner Mongolia reach of the Yellow River. Nevertheless

systematic investigations into its spatial distribution patterns and future trends remain limited. Utilizing bankfull discharge data spanning 1965–2020 for this reach

this study systematically elucidates its spatiotemporal evolution. Furthermore

a delayed response model was developed based on average flood-season flow discharge and sediment concentration data from 2000–2020 to project future bankfull discharge under multiple scenarios. The results reveal a persistent decline in the flow conveyance capacity of the Ningxia–Inner Mongolia reach over the past half-century. The streamwise distribution pattern of bankfull discharge transitioned from a "decrease–increase–decrease" profile during 1965–1986 to a "decrease-then-increase" profile after 1987. Correspondingly

the bottleneck reach limiting flow capacity has shifted downstream from Shizuishan to the Bayangaole–Sanhuhekou section

with Sanhuhekou being the most pronounced bottleneck. This shift is attributed to the combined influence of changing water–sediment regimes and channel boundary conditions. Marked reductions in flood-season inflow disrupted the pre-existing water–sediment equilibrium

while extensive levee construction since the late 20th century altered natural channel boundaries. These factors collectively aggravated channel sedimentation and led to reduced bankfull discharge. After 2000

under intensified anthropogenic influence

the channel system attained a new state of relative dynamic equilibrium. The steamwise variation in bankfull discharge during this period can be accurately represented by a cubic polynomial (R²>0.9). Model projections indicate that future bankfull discharge will decrease in the following order: high-flow–low-sediment

medium-flow–medium-sediment

and low-flow–high-sediment scenarios. Across all scenarios

the reach from Xiaheyan to Shizuishan is projected to experience declining bankfull discharge

whereas the section from Sanhuhekou to Toudaoguai may see a moderate recovery. Sanhuhekou consistently emerges as the key bottleneck section under all projected scenarios. Consequently

river management and restoration efforts in the Ningxia–Inner Mongolia reach should prioritize the reach downstream of Shizuishan

particularly the Sanhuhekou section

to effectively enhance the overall flow conveyance capacity.

关键词

Keywords

references

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