Risk assessment of tunnel collapse based on ideal point method-improved catastrophe theory

MAO Qiyong; SHI Kebin; LI Lei; ZHANG Jianming; JIANG Haibo; YAN Xinjun

doi:10.14188/j.1671-8844.2024.0407

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Risk assessment of tunnel collapse based on ideal point method-improved catastrophe theory

更新时间：2026-10-15

- Risk assessment of tunnel collapse based on ideal point method-improved catastrophe theory
- Engineering Journal of Wuhan University Pages: 1-14(2026)
- 作者机构：
  
  1.新疆农业大学水利与土木工程学院, 新疆乌鲁木齐 830052
  2.新疆水利工程安全与水灾害防治重点实验室, 新疆乌鲁木齐　830052
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.14188/j.1671-8844.2024.0407
  CLC： U458
- Online First：15 October 2026，
- 稿件说明：
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MAO Qiyong, SHI Kebin, LI Lei, et al. Risk assessment of tunnel collapse based on ideal point method-improved catastrophe theory[J/OL]. Engineering Journal of Wuhan University, 2026, 1-14.
DOI：

MAO Qiyong, SHI Kebin, LI Lei, et al. Risk assessment of tunnel collapse based on ideal point method-improved catastrophe theory[J/OL]. Engineering Journal of Wuhan University, 2026, 1-14. DOI： 10.14188/j.1671-8844.2024.0407.

摘要

隧道掘进机(Tunnel Boring Machine

TBM)施工隧洞坍塌具有复杂性与模糊性，为准确评估坍塌灾害，提出了一种基于理想点法-改进突变理论的坍塌风险评价模型。首先，从工程地质、水文地质、勘察设计与施工四个方面，选取了11评价指标并以此建立风险评价体系；随后，通过理想点法对各指标的重要性进行排序；并确定突变级数中控制变量的取值，逐层递进求得隶属度以及最终隶属度；最后根据隶属度原则得到隧洞坍塌风险等级。利用该方法对新疆KS隧洞穿越断层破碎带进行了评价，与实际情况进行了对比，提出了相应的解决措施，并对其效果进行评估。研究结果表明：该模型评价的结果与现场实际坍塌的结果基本一致，能较好地反映出KS隧洞穿越破碎带地段的实际情况；提出的解决方案应用效果较好，确保了TBM能顺利穿越破碎带。

Abstract

The collapse of tunnel constructed by tunnel boring machine ( TBM ) is complex and fuzzy. In order to accurately evaluate the collapse disaster

a collapse risk assessment model based on ideal point method and improved catastrophe theory is proposed. Firstly

from the four aspects of engineering geology

hydrogeology

survey design and construction

11 evaluation indexes are selected and the risk evaluation system is established. Then

the importance of each index is sorted by the ideal point method. The value of the control variables in the mutation series is determined

and the membership degree and the final membership degree are obtained step by step. Finally

the risk level of tunnel collapse is obtained according to the principle of membership degree. This method is used to evaluate the KS tunnel crossing the fault fracture zone in Xinjiang

and compared with the actual situation. The corresponding solutions are put forward and the effect is evaluated. The results show that the evaluation results of the model are basically consistent with the actual collapse results

which can better reflect the actual situation of KS tunnel crossing the fracture zone. The application effect of the proposed solution is good

which ensures that TBM can smoothly cross the fracture zone.

关键词

Keywords

references

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