A Rapid Prediction Method for Water Quality Evolution of Sudden Water Pollution Based on Water Age Distribution Characteristics - A Case Study of Lihu Lake

LI Jialin; WANG Lingling; XU Xiangzhe; ZHAO Yonggang; JI Yizhu; XU Jin; HU Lihan; ZHU Hai

doi:10.14188/j.1671-8844.2024.0182

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A Rapid Prediction Method for Water Quality Evolution of Sudden Water Pollution Based on Water Age Distribution Characteristics - A Case Study of Lihu Lake

更新时间：2026-10-15

- A Rapid Prediction Method for Water Quality Evolution of Sudden Water Pollution Based on Water Age Distribution Characteristics - A Case Study of Lihu Lake
- Engineering Journal of Wuhan University Pages: 1-11(2026)
- 作者机构：
  
  1.水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室，河海大学，江苏南京 210098
  2.河海大学水利水电学院，江苏南京 210098
  3.水利部水循环与水动力重点实验室，河海大学，江苏南京 210098
  4.无锡德林海环保科技股份有限公司，江苏无锡，214000
  5.中水淮河规划设计有限公司，安徽合肥，230601
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.14188/j.1671-8844.2024.0182
  CLC： TV213.3
- Online First：15 October 2026，
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
LI Jialin, WANG Lingling, XU Xiangzhe, et al. A Rapid Prediction Method for Water Quality Evolution of Sudden Water Pollution Based on Water Age Distribution Characteristics - A Case Study of Lihu Lake[J/OL]. Engineering Journal of Wuhan University, 2026, 1-11.
DOI：

LI Jialin, WANG Lingling, XU Xiangzhe, et al. A Rapid Prediction Method for Water Quality Evolution of Sudden Water Pollution Based on Water Age Distribution Characteristics - A Case Study of Lihu Lake[J/OL]. Engineering Journal of Wuhan University, 2026, 1-11. DOI： 10.14188/j.1671-8844.2024.0182.

摘要

为了分析了不同活水方案下蠡湖水龄的时空分布特征，并应对水体突发水污染问题，（进行模拟研究），并提出了一种基于水龄的水质演变快速预测方法。模拟结果表明，选择由长广溪节制闸进水、环湖河闸和曹王泾闸出水、流量配比为2:1的活水方案，可有效降低蠡湖全湖的平均水龄，并最大化活水区面积。综合分析水龄分布规律，总结并提出了一种基于水龄的水质演变快速预测方法；该方法利用水龄分布的模拟成果，可快速确定污染物的输移路径和到达时间，大幅缩短了预测时间，为突发水污染事故的应急处置提供了有效支撑。研究结果表明，该方法的预测结果与传统水动力-水质耦合模型的模拟成果相吻合，且具有更为快速且便捷的特点。成果对于推动各类水体的水质安全管理具有重要的理论和实践价值。

Abstract

This study analyzed the spatial and temporal characteristics of water age in Lihu Lake under different active water strategies

and a rapid prediction method for water quality evolution was proposed based on water age to address sudden water pollution problems. The results indicated that by selecting the active water strategy with inflow from the Changguangxi Sluice

outflow from the Huanhu Sluice and Caowangjing Sluice with a flow ratio of 2:1

the average water age of the entire lake can be effectively reduced

and the area of the active water zone can be maximized. Based on the simulation results

a rapid prediction method for water quality evolution was proposed using the water age distribution. This method can rapidly determine the transport path and arrival time of pollutants by utilizing the simulated water age distribution

significantly shortening the prediction time and providing effective support for emergency response to sudden water pollution accidents. The study results demonstrated that the predictions of this method are consistent with the simulations results of traditional hydrodynamic-water quality coupled models

and the method has a more rapid and convenient approach. The findings have important theoretical and practical value for promoting the water quality safety management in various water bodies.

关键词

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references

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