The spatial heterogeneity of photovoltaic(PV) clusters makes it difficult to unify the weather types among different sites. Existing daily-scale weather classification methods ignore intraday transitional weather characteristics
making it difficult to provide effective scenario information for forecasting model construction. To address these issues
this paper proposes a short-term power forecasting method for PV clusters considering weather inconsistency and intraday variations in power generation characteristics. First
representative stations from each sub-cluster within the PV cluster are selected
and their similar-day power profiles are calculated. Second
based on the similar-day power profiles of the representative stations
a clustering model is employed to divide the output levels at different time points
where continuous output levels represent different power generation scenarios. Finally
based on the extraction of dynamic spatial correlations using a graph convolutional network(GCN)
output-level information is utilized to guide the variation of edge weights between nodes. Meanwhile
an interpretable time-fusion Transformer is adopted to construct a unified power forecasting model under different output scenarios. Through structures such as the variable selection network and static variable encoding
the output-level context vector is integrated throughout the modeling process. By dynamically selecting features under different scenarios
the proposed method further achieves scenario information-guided forecasting model construction and interaction with scenario characteristics. The interpretability of the model is enhanced by visualizing variable weights. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated using data from a PV cluster in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.
Short-term Power Prediction of Wind Power Cluster Based on SDAE Deep Learning and Multiple Integration
考虑电-热协同效应的MXene/PI复合薄膜耐电晕性能
基于软开关转移的全SiC器件单相有源中点钳位三电平逆变器损耗优化策略
光纤复合绝缘子金属法兰内部光纤放电烧蚀分析
弱送端汇集配电网变压器配置:关键问题、多目标建模与优化求解方法综述
Related Author
LI Cong
PENG Xiaosheng
WANG Haohuai
CHE Jianfeng
WANG Bo
LIU Chun
Related Institution
State Key Laboratory of Strong Electromagnetic Engineering and New Technology, School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology
Power Dispatching Control Center of China Southern Power Grid
State Key Laboratory of New Energy and Storage Operation Control, China Electric Power Research Institute