In order to model and analyze the development trend of wind-thermal installed capacity in carbon markets after the resumption of the Chinese certified emission reduction(CCER) project

a system dynamics model for the development of wind-thermal installed capacity in the carbon market considering the CCER is established. The validity of the model is verified by the historical data

and differentiated scenarios are constructed to analyze the impacts of different policy support efforts and speeds of technological development in the future installed capacity and proportion of wind-thermal power consumption in China

then a sensitivity analysis of CCER offset ratio is performed. Simulative results show that the installed capacity of wind and thermal power in 2030 in the high policy strength scenario is 41.83 GW higher and 89.41 GW lower than that in the high technology development rate scenario

indicating that the policy support effort has a stronger inhibiting effect on the development of thermal power installed capacity and incentive effect on the development of wind power installed capacity than speed of technological development. The consumption ratios of wind and thermal power in 2030 in the high technology development rate scenario are 0.73% higher and 1.49% lower than those in the high policy intensity scenario

indicating that the speed of technological development has a stronger inhibiting effect on the consumption of thermal power and incentive effect on the consumption of wind power than policy support effort. In the process of adjusting the CCER offset ratio from 3.5% to 6.5%

the change of installed capacity of wind and thermal power is 8.27% and 18.07%

the carbon market has the best incentive effect on wind power when the CCER offset ratio is taken as 4%

and the carbon market has the best inhibiting effect on thermal power when the CCER offset ratio is taken as 3.5%.