Evaluation and simulation prediction of fragmentation in farmland landscape in county-level regions of Anhui Province

ZHANG Xiaorui; YANG Xinyue; LI Jieming; WANG Zhenbo; WANG Xin; XU Tu

doi:10.13300/j.cnki.hnlkxb.2026.01.018

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Evaluation and simulation prediction of fragmentation in farmland landscape in county-level regions of Anhui Province

High-quality development of urban-rural with green integration | 更新时间：2026-11-05

- Evaluation and simulation prediction of fragmentation in farmland landscape in county-level regions of Anhui Province
- Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University Vol. 45, Issue 1, Pages: 200-212(2026)
- 作者机构：
  
  1.合肥工业大学建筑与艺术学院，合肥 230601
  2.合肥工业大学数字人居环境研究实验室，合肥 230601
  3.合肥工业大学设计院（集团）有限公司，合肥 230009
  4.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所，北京 100101
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13300/j.cnki.hnlkxb.2026.01.018
  CLC： F323.211
- Received：30 May 2025，
  
  Published：15 January 2026
- 稿件说明：
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张晓瑞，杨欣悦，李杰铭，等.安徽省县域耕地景观破碎化评价与模拟预测研究［J］.华中农业大学学报，2026，45（1）：200‐212.

ZHANG Xiaorui,YANG Xinyue,LI Jieming,et al.Evaluation and simulation prediction of fragmentation in farmland landscape in county-level regions of Anhui Province[J].Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University,2026,45(01):200-212.
张晓瑞，杨欣悦，李杰铭，等.安徽省县域耕地景观破碎化评价与模拟预测研究［J］.华中农业大学学报，2026，45（1）：200‐212. DOI： 10.13300/j.cnki.hnlkxb.2026.01.018.

ZHANG Xiaorui,YANG Xinyue,LI Jieming,et al.Evaluation and simulation prediction of fragmentation in farmland landscape in county-level regions of Anhui Province[J].Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University,2026,45(01):200-212. DOI： 10.13300/j.cnki.hnlkxb.2026.01.018.

摘要

耕地是保障国家粮食安全的根基，评价和预测耕地景观的破碎化程度对于制定耕地保护政策、优化耕地空间布局具有重要的价值和意义。为明确耕地景观破碎化的现状与演变趋势，以2000—2020年安徽省县域单元为研究对象，在多源大数据支持下，综合运用土地利用变化分析模型、景观格局指数、地理探测器和PLUS模型等方法，系统分析安徽省耕地景观的时空演变特征、驱动机制及未来发展预测。结果显示：2000年以来安徽省耕地总面积持续减少，主要转化为建设用地；耕地景观破碎化在多因素交互作用下不断加剧，综合指数平均值持续升高，空间分布呈“北高南低”格局；基于2030年的安徽省耕地变化模拟预测发现，仅在保护情景下，耕地景观破碎化程度有所改善。研究表明，未来安徽省需严格落实耕地保护政策，通过宏观调控土地利用和耕地占补平衡，实现安徽省耕地资源的可持续发展。

Abstract

Farmland is the foundation for ensuring national food security. Evaluating and predicting the degree of fragmentation in farmland landscapes has significant value and importance for formulating policies of protecting farmland and optimizing the spatial layout of farmland. The county-level units in Anhui Province from 2000 to 2020 were used to study the situation and evolution trends of fragmentation in farmland landscapes. The characteristics of spatiotemporal evolution， driving mechanisms， and predictions of development in the future of farmland landscapes in Anhui Province were systematically analyzed based on big multi-source data with methods including land use change analysis models， landscape pattern indices， geographic detectors， and the PLUS model. The results showed that the total area of farmland in Anhui Province has continuously decreased since 2000， mainly being transformed into construction land. The fragmentation in farmland landscapes has continuously intensified under the interaction of multiple factors， with the average comprehensive index steadily increasing， and a spatial distribution pattern of high in the north and low in the south. The results of the simulation prediction of changes in farmland in Anhui Province in 2030 showed that the degree of fragmentation in farmland landscapes will be improved only under the scenario of protection. It is indicated that Anhui Province needs to strictly implement the policy of protecting farmland in the future， achieve sustainable development of farmland resources in Anhui Province through macro-level regulation of balance between the land use and the occupation/compensation of farmland.

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references

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