Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics of the Earth's Plasmasphere and Geomagnetic Storm Response Analysis Based on TabTransformer

ZHANG Qi; GUO Ailisi; ZHAI Changzhi; KONG Jian

doi:10.13203/j.whugis20260295

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Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics of the Earth's Plasmasphere and Geomagnetic Storm Response Analysis Based on TabTransformer

Geodesy and Survey Engineering | 更新时间：2026-10-15

- Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics of the Earth's Plasmasphere and Geomagnetic Storm Response Analysis Based on TabTransformer
- Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University Vol. 51, Issue 11, Pages: 2297-2313(2026)
- 作者机构：
  
  1.武汉大学测绘学院，湖北武汉，430079
  2.中国地质大学（武汉）地理与信息工程学院，湖北武汉，430074
  3.武汉大学中国南极测绘研究中心，湖北武汉，430079
  4.武汉大学极地环境监测与公共治理教育部重点实验室，湖北武汉，430079
  5.湖北珞珈实验室，湖北武汉，430079
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13203/j.whugis20260295
  CLC： P228
- Received：31 July 2026，
  
  Published：05 November 2026
- 稿件说明：
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张琦,郭艾丽思,翟长治，等.基于TabTransformer的地球等离子体层时空演化特征及磁暴响应分析[J].武汉大学学报（信息科学版）,2026,51(11):2297-2313.

ZHANG Qi,GUO Ailisi,ZHAI Changzhi,et al.Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics of the Earth's Plasmasphere and Geomagnetic Storm Response Analysis Based on TabTransformer[J].Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University,2026,51(11):2297-2313.
张琦,郭艾丽思,翟长治，等.基于TabTransformer的地球等离子体层时空演化特征及磁暴响应分析[J].武汉大学学报（信息科学版）,2026,51(11):2297-2313. DOI：10.13203/j.whugis20260295

ZHANG Qi,GUO Ailisi,ZHAI Changzhi,et al.Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics of the Earth's Plasmasphere and Geomagnetic Storm Response Analysis Based on TabTransformer[J].Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University,2026,51(11):2297-2313. DOI：10.13203/j.whugis20260295

摘要

等离子体层作为连接电离层与磁层的关键区域，其等离子体层总电子含量（plasmaspheric total electron content

PTEC）变化对全球导航定位系统定位、空间天气监测及电离层-磁层耦合研究具有重要意义。针对传统观测在空间分布上不均匀、时间分辨率偏低，以及经验模型难以对其复杂时空变化作出准确描述等问题，选取2006—2019年的COSMIC-1顶部总电子含量观测数据，基于TabTransformer构建了全球PTEC模型，并系统性地分析了PTEC的日变化、季节变化、年际变化规律及磁暴扰动响应特征。结果显示，所构建的深度学习模型具有较高精度，测试集上的平均绝对误差为0.678 1 TECU，均方根误差为0.966 6 TECU，相关系数达到0.940 8，且无显著系统性偏差。PTEC表现出明显的多尺度时空变化特征。日变化方面，PTEC整体呈午后单峰结构，峰值主要出现在12:00:00—16:00:00地方时（local time，LT），谷值出现在03:00:00—06:00:00 LT，低纬度地区日周期现象最显著，日变化幅度最大，中纬度地区太阳高年的日周期特征较太阳低年更为明显，而高纬地区几乎没有日周期特征，日变化幅度最小。季节变化上，全球PTEC整体表现为冬至最高、夏至最低、春秋分居中的分布格局，且存在南北半球不对称性。年际变化方面，PTEC主要受太阳活动主导，太阳高年PTEC的变化趋势与

10.7指数高度一致，太阳低年则没有明显的相关性。磁暴期间，PTEC的全球响应表现出显著的纬度、LT及

壳层依赖性：主相阶段随Dst急剧下降而同步大幅上升，原有的日变化特征被完全打破，全球整体以正相暴为主，呈现增强态势；进入恢复相后，全球正相暴逐步衰减，低中纬的负相暴持续扩大，而高纬仍维持正相暴，不同地方时扇区存在增强与减弱并存的空间分异特征。

Abstract

Objectives

The plasmasphere is an important region connecting the ionosphere and magnetosphere

and its plasmaspheric total electron content (PTEC) variations are essential for global navigation satellite system positioning

space weather monitoring

and studies of ionosphere-magnetosphere coupling. However

conventional observations suffer from uneven spatial coverage and limited temporal resolution

while empirical models have difficulty accurately describing the complex spatiotemporal variability of PTEC. This study aims to develop a global PTEC prediction model and investigate the multi-scale temporal-spatial variations and geomagnetic storm responses of PTEC.

Methods

Using COSMIC-1 topside total electron content observations from 2006 to 2019

a global PTEC prediction model was developed based on the TabTransformer architecture. Geographic location

temporal information

solar activity

and geomagnetic activity parameters were incorporated as model inputs. The model performance was evaluated using an independent test dataset

and the predicted global PTEC distributions were further analyzed in terms of diurnal

seasonal

interannual

and storm-time variations.

Results

The proposed model achieved high prediction accuracy

with an mean absolute error of 0.678 1 TECU

an root mean square error of 0.966 6 TECU

and a correlation coefficient of 0.940 8 on the independent test dataset

without significant systematic bias. The predicted PTEC exhibited clear multiscale spatiotemporal variations. Diurnally

global PTEC generally showed a single-peak pattern

with maximum values occurring mainly during 12:00:00-16:00:00 local time (LT) and minimum values during 03:00:00-06:00:00 LT. The diurnal variation was strongest at low latitudes

weaker at middle latitudes

and almost absent at high latitudes. Seasonally

PTEC showed the highest values around the December solstice and the lowest values around the June solstice

with evident hemispheric asymmetry. Interannually

PTEC variations were mainly controlled by solar activity

showing strong consistency with

10.7 during solar maximum years but weaker dependence during solar minimum years. During geomagnetic storms

PTEC responses exhibited significant dependencies on latitude

local time

and

-shell. During the storm main phase

global PTEC showed a rapid enhancement following the sharp decrease in Dst

and the background diurnal variations were substantially disrupted. During the recovery phase

positive PTEC disturbances gradually weakened

negative PTEC disturbances expanded at low and middle latitudes

while positive PTEC disturbances

persisted at high latitudes.

Conclusions

The proposed TabTransformer-based model enables long-term global PTEC prediction from COSMIC-1 observations. The results reveal the complex spatiotemporal characteristics of PTEC and its responses to solar and geomagnetic disturbances

improving understanding of plasmaspheric dynamics and ionosphere-magnetosphere coupling processes.

关键词

Keywords

references

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