Community Detection of Global Conflict Based on Geographical Flow Network Analysis

ZHOU Yang; QIN Kun; XU Yanqing; YU Xuesong; LIANG Tianqi

doi:10.13203/j.whugis20240502

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Community Detection of Global Conflict Based on Geographical Flow Network Analysis

更新时间：2026-11-05

- Community Detection of Global Conflict Based on Geographical Flow Network Analysis
- Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University Vol. 51, Issue 1, Pages: 78-98(2026)
- 作者机构：
  
  武汉大学遥感信息工程学院，湖北武汉，430079
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13203/j.whugis20240502
  CLC： P208
- Received：20 December 2024，
  
  Published：05 January 2026
- 稿件说明：
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周扬,秦昆,许艳青，等.利用地理流网络分析探测全球冲突社区结构[J].武汉大学学报（信息科学版）,2026,51(1):78-98.

ZHOU Yang,QIN Kun,XU Yanqing,et al.Community Detection of Global Conflict Based on Geographical Flow Network Analysis[J].Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University,2026,51(1):78-98.
周扬,秦昆,许艳青，等.利用地理流网络分析探测全球冲突社区结构[J].武汉大学学报（信息科学版）,2026,51(1):78-98. DOI：10.13203/j.whugis20240502

ZHOU Yang,QIN Kun,XU Yanqing,et al.Community Detection of Global Conflict Based on Geographical Flow Network Analysis[J].Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University,2026,51(1):78-98. DOI：10.13203/j.whugis20240502

摘要

21世纪以来国际关系错综复杂，全球冲突此起彼伏。国家/地区之间的彼此影响形成了内部联系紧密的冲突集团，全面分析冲突集团的特征能够增进对国际局势的整体感知，为制定外交策略提供参考。冲突事件中的信息与物质的流动构成了国际冲突流这一特殊的地理流，地理流网络化挖掘以其全面的建模与分析能力为大尺度、动态性的国际冲突研究提供了方法基础。基于全球事件、语言和语调数据库提取国际冲突事件，以国家/地区为节点、国际冲突为边，构建时序的全球冲突流网络，运用多层社区分析、聚类分析等方法挖掘了国家/地区的冲突集团，并分析了不同类型冲突集团所反映的交互特征。研究结果表明：社区的拓扑特征、动态特性有助于进一步对冲突集团进行区分，针对冲突集团特征与模式的分析揭示出全球尺度整体上以中等规模的国际冲突为主，并且可以归纳为全球性综合冲突、区域性低强度冲突、局部持续性冲突、小规模冻结冲突以及局部热点地缘冲突。

Abstract

Objectives

Since the 21st century

persistent global conflicts have intensified the uncertainty in international relations. The interactions in conflicts form a distinct type of geographical flow

known as conflict flow. The comprehensive analysis of the characteristics and patterns within conflict flow can enhance the understanding of international relations and offer valuable insights for policy planning. Conflict events provide details of interactions between countries or regions

thereby offering a foundation for the study of large-scale and long-term conflict relations. Meanwhile

the development of network analysis has facilitated the representation of relationships

providing a feasible method for the study of conflict flow.

Methods

Theories and methodologies concerning complex networks

particularly multilayer networks

are utilized to analyze the conflicts with dynamic characteristics between countries or regions. First

based on event data in the global database of events

languages and tones from 2021 to 2022

conflict events can be represented as edges between the nodes of countries or regions. The temporal international conflict flow network can be constructed by organizing and segmenting conflicts monthly. Second

the communities of countries or regions nodes can be identified from the international conflict flow network using a Louvain-like algorithm adapted for multilayer networks. Finally

these communities can be further represented as sub-networks. Based on the network topological feature measurements

a method that integrates clustering analysis

statistical analysis

and visualization can be employed to infer international conflict patterns within the communities.

Results

The statistical analysis of networks indicates that the countries or regions involved in conflicts remain relatively stable. However

the overall intensity of conflicts could demonstrate fluctuations du‑ring specific events. The spatial distribution of communities indicates that international conflicts are generally dispersed

while exhibiting aggregative patterns within localized areas. From statistical and clustering analysis of the network topological features

the communities can be classified into five distinct types

each representing a unique conflict pattern: (1) Global comprehensive conflicts are characterized as large-scale conflicts exhibiting limited overall intensity

primarily driven by a limited number of major countries or regions. (2) Low-intensity regional conflicts are primarily associated with large-scale international conflicts within specific areas

with relatively limited intensity and overall influence. (3) Localized persistent conflicts are mainly concentrated in localized areas within a specific continent

with the composition

intensity

and influence of conflicts remaining relatively stable. (4) Small-scale frozen conflicts can be classified as a category of stable conflicts

with limited scale and intensity. These conflicts are primarily associated with continuous bilateral events between neighboring countries or regions. (5) Localized intense geopolitical conflicts tend to cluster around areas with unstable situations. These conflicts are primarily associated with high-frequency

high-intensity bilateral conflict events between key countries or regions. The statistical and visual analysis indicate that the frequency and intensity of conflicts between most countries or regions remain relatively li‑mited

except for the localized intense geopolitical conflicts. Additionally

with the exception of global comprehensive conflicts

the majority of conflict clusters exhibit a cohesive spatial distribution pattern.

Conclusions

The international conflict flow network shows an overall stable distribution of conflicts with significant dynamic variations in intensity and frequency within localized areas. The characteristics associated with different types of conflicts can be reflected in the internal structure of the corresponding communities. Large-scale conflicts and intense geopolitical conflicts comprise limited proportions of international multi-actor conflicts. Therefore

the overall international environment can still be characterized by peace and stability. For countries or regions

detailed analysis of community structures within the international conflict flow network can provide additional support and reference for the dynamic adjustment of foreign policy and strategies.

关键词

Keywords

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