Analysis of Changes in Maritime Transport Networks for Strategic Materials Affected by Attacks in the Red Sea

YU Jianing; FANG Zhixiang; HU Xiaoyuan; YU Hongchu; WANG Zhongyuan

doi:10.13203/j.whugis20240099

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Analysis of Changes in Maritime Transport Networks for Strategic Materials Affected by Attacks in the Red Sea

Cartography and GIS | 更新时间：2026-11-05

- Analysis of Changes in Maritime Transport Networks for Strategic Materials Affected by Attacks in the Red Sea
- Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University Vol. 51, Issue 4, Pages: 852-865(2026)
- 作者机构：
  
  1.武汉大学测绘遥感信息工程全国重点实验室，湖北武汉，430079
  2.中交通信大数据（上海）科技有限公司，上海，200000
  3.武汉理工大学航运学院，湖北武汉，430079
  4.南京工业大学测绘科学与技术学院，江苏南京，210000
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13203/j.whugis20240099
  CLC： P208
- Received：11 September 2024，
  
  Published：05 April 2026
- 稿件说明：
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禹佳宁,方志祥,胡筱渊，等.红海袭击事件波及的全球战略物资海运网络变化分析[J].武汉大学学报（信息科学版）,2026,51(4):852-865.

YU Jianing,FANG Zhixiang,HU Xiaoyuan,et al.Analysis of Changes in Maritime Transport Networks for Strategic Materials Affected by Attacks in the Red Sea[J].Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University,2026,51(4):852-865.
禹佳宁,方志祥,胡筱渊，等.红海袭击事件波及的全球战略物资海运网络变化分析[J].武汉大学学报（信息科学版）,2026,51(4):852-865. DOI：10.13203/j.whugis20240099

YU Jianing,FANG Zhixiang,HU Xiaoyuan,et al.Analysis of Changes in Maritime Transport Networks for Strategic Materials Affected by Attacks in the Red Sea[J].Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University,2026,51(4):852-865. DOI：10.13203/j.whugis20240099

摘要

海运是全球贸易的主要运输方式，其通行安全对国际贸易体系的稳定运行至关重要。红海海域袭击事件严重威胁了该关键航道的通行安全，对全球战略物资供应链产生了较大影响。以全球船舶自动识别系统数据为基础，构建了涉及红海的典型全球战略物资海运网络，从海运航线、战略物资以及海运网络等角度，分析了红海袭击事件对战略物资海运网络演变的影响。研究结果表明：在航线变化方面，亚洲和非洲国家日均航次数量未受明显影响，其他大洲国家的航次数量普遍呈下降趋势，且受影响国家的平均降幅显著高于未受影响国家；在战略物资方面，铁矿石、原油和液化石油气(liquefied petroleum gas，LPG)的运输量显著减少，液化天然气（liquefied natural gas，LNG）的日均运输量未受影响；在海运网络演变层面，不同的战略物资网络呈现出了不同的变化特征，其中铁矿石运输网络稳定性较高，能源类物资(LNG和LPG)呈现出了中等程度的稳定性，粮食海运网络的波动性最强。研究结果有助于理解突发地缘政治事件对国际战略物资流动和全球供应链稳定性的潜在影响，为全球化背景下保障国际贸易通道安全和提升供应链稳定性提供参考。

Abstract

Objectives

As a critical mode of transportation for global trade

the security of maritime shipping is essential to international commerce. Recent armed conflicts in the Red Sea region have significantly endangered safe passage through this vital shipping lane and have had profound effects on the global supply chain of strategic commodities. Given the Red Sea's strategic position linking Asia

Europe

and Africa

disruptions in this region could rapidly propagate across interconnected maritime networks

triggering cascading effects on global logistics systems and increasing systemic risks in international trade. Moreover

such disruptions could lead to route detours

increased transportation costs

and delays

thereby further exacerbating supply chain instability. Although an increasing volume of research has focused on tracking and analyzing the long-term impacts of the shipping system following major events

there remained an urgent need to capture and analyze real-time conflicts. Such research was critical for enabling timely responses to the challenges confronting the maritime system

thus helping to mitigate negative impacts. In particular

the ability to conduct near-real-time monitoring and short-term impact assessment was essential for identifying early-stage disruptions and supporting rapid operational and policy responses. This shift from ex-post analysis to near-real-time evaluation represented an important advancement in maritime risk analysis.

Methods

First

changes in the number of shipping routes were analyzed to evaluate the impact on countries across different geographic regions and geopolitical contexts

providing a macroscopic perspective on the redistribution of maritime flows. Second

shifts in the transport volume of five strategic materials were assessed by incorporating material-specific weights

enabling the evaluation of both quantity changes and their relative importance in global trade. Furthermore

changes in the maritime network of strategic materials were examined to identify affected nodes and edges. Network evolution patterns were then analyzed using key indicators

including network connectivity

path efficiency

and node centrality

to evaluate structural robustness and functional performance under external shocks.

Results

The results showed that

in terms of affected maritime routes

there was no decline in the average daily number of voyages for countries in Asia and Africa

while all other continents experienced a decreasing trend. The rate of decline among affected countries was notably more significant than that among unaffected ones. This suggested that geographic proximity

trade intensity

and reliance on the Red Sea corridor played critical roles in determining the extent of disruption experienced by different regions. From the perspective of strategic materials

iron

crude oil

and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) shipments dominated the traffic. Except for liquefied natural gas (LNG)

which exhibited an increase in average daily traffic

other strategic materials displayed a similar downward trend by the end of the study period. The contrasting trend observed for LNG might have reflected adaptive rerouting strategies

shifts in energy demand structures

or substitution effects within global energy supply chains. At the network evolution level

the core nodes of the maritime network remained stable in the face of shocks. This stability indicated the resilience of major hub ports and their continued central role in sustaining global connectivity despite regional disruptions. Different strategic material networks demonstrated distinct adaptation patterns

with grain and LPG networks showing an increase in the average shortest path length compared to the pre-shock period

while crude oil

LPG

and iron ore networks exhibited a more aggregated and short-distance adaptation pattern. The increase in path length suggested reduced transport efficiency and potential detours

whereas aggregation indicated a tendency toward regionalization under constraints. Iron ore demonstrated high stability

energy materials (LNG

LPG

and crude oil) exhibited moderate stability

and the food maritime network was the most volatile. These differences highlighted the heterogeneous resilience of commodity-specific transport networks and reflected variations in supply chain flexibility and substitution capacity. In summary

we captured and analyzed the impacts of unforeseen events on the maritime transport network in a timely manner by integrating data from multiple sources and employing a limited time window and geographic scope.

Conclusions

Compared with conventional post-event studies

this approach enabled faster detection of disruptions

improved the responsiveness of analytical frameworks

and provided more actionable insights for policymakers and industry stakeholders. Furthermore

it offered a scalable methodology for assessing similar geopolitical shocks in other critical transport corridors. The assessment revealed significant disruptions in global transport patterns in the Red Sea region

highlighting the importance of maintaining global trade flows and supply chain stability in the context of globalization. Overall

this study contributes to a deeper understanding of maritime network resilience and provides empirical support for enhancing risk management strategies in global shipping systems.

关键词

Keywords

references

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