Risk Assessment of CO<sub>2</sub> Leakage in Caprock Considering Complex Flow Mechanisms

Zhang Jianning Yao Nan

doi:10.12473/CPM.202508006

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Risk Assessment of CO₂ Leakage in Caprock Considering Complex Flow Mechanisms

NEW ENERGY TECHNOLOGY | 更新时间：2026-11-04

- Risk Assessment of CO₂ Leakage in Caprock Considering Complex Flow Mechanisms
- China Petroleum Machinery Vol. 54, Issue 10, Pages: 134-144(2026)
- 作者机构：
  
  中国石油化工股份有限公司江苏油田分公司采油一厂
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.12473/CPM.202508006
  CLC： TE972
- Received：02 August 2025，
  
  Revised：2026-04-28，
  
  Accepted：10 October 2025，
  
  Published：25 October 2026
- 稿件说明：
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张建宁，姚楠.考虑复杂流动机理的盖层CO₂泄漏风险评价［J］.石油机械，2026，54（10）：134-144. DOI: 10.12473/CPM.202508006.

Zhang Jianning，Yao Nan.Risk assessment of CO₂ leakage in caprock considering complex flow mechanisms［J］.China Petroleum Machinery，2026，54（10）：134-144. DOI: 10.12473/CPM.202508006.
张建宁，姚楠.考虑复杂流动机理的盖层CO₂泄漏风险评价［J］.石油机械，2026，54（10）：134-144. DOI: 10.12473/CPM.202508006. DOI：

Zhang Jianning，Yao Nan.Risk assessment of CO₂ leakage in caprock considering complex flow mechanisms［J］.China Petroleum Machinery，2026，54（10）：134-144. DOI: 10.12473/CPM.202508006. DOI：

摘要

在CO

地质封存中，准确评估盖层泄漏风险至关重要。为了明确压裂制度对CO

封存时盖层泄漏风险的影响，建立了考虑气体吸附/解吸、扩散、水化反应及裂缝应力敏感性的盖储一体CO

封存数值模型，并借助商业软件的生产历史及盖层泄漏参数对模型的可行性进行了验证；研究了压裂液排量、黏度、砂浓度及裂缝数量、半长和高度等压裂制度对盖层泄漏风险的影响。研究结果表明：增大水力裂缝的数量、半长和高度均会增大CO

的泄漏风险，从而减小盖层的安全性；盖层和储层渗透率分别为6.9 nD和0.1 mD时，百年封存期内盖层CO

泄漏体积低于注入总量的5%，泄漏主要发生在前70 a，泄漏距离不超过50 m；提高压裂液排量与砂浓度或降低压裂液黏度，均会促使水力裂缝尺寸增大，从而增加CO

泄漏风险。实际方案设计中需优化上述参数以保障CO

长期封存的安全性。研究结果可为致密储层CO

封存的风险预测提供理论依据。

Abstract

Accurately assessing the risk of caprock leakage is crucial in CO

geological storage. To clarify the impact of fracturing design on caprock leakage during CO

storage， a caprock-reservoir integrated numerical model for CO

storage was established， incorporating gas adsorption/desorption， diffusion， hydration reaction， and fracture stress sensitivity. The feasibility of the model was verified using production history and caprock leakage parameters from commercial software. The effects of fracturing parameters （fluid injection rate， viscosity， proppant concentration， as well as fracture number， half-length， and height） on caprock leakage were investigated. The results indicate that increasing the number， half-length， or height of hydraulic fractures elevates the risk of CO

leakage， thereby reducing the caprock safety. When caprock and reservoir permeabilities are 6.9 nD and 0.1 mD， respectively， the volume of CO

leaked through the caprock within a 100-year storage period remains below 5% of the total injected volume， and the leakage mostly occurs in the first 70 years， with a distance not exceeding 50 meters. Higher injection rates and proppant concentrations or lower fluid viscosity promote larger hydraulic fractures， further increasing the CO

leakage risk. Practical engineering designs must optimize these

parameters to ensure long-term storage security. This study provides a theoretical basis for predicting risks in CO

storage in tight reservoirs.

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Risk Assessment of CO2 Leakage in Caprock Considering Complex Flow Mechanisms

DOI：10.12473/CPM.202508006

摘要

Abstract

关键词

Keywords

references

Risk Assessment of CO₂ Leakage in Caprock Considering Complex Flow Mechanisms