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新丰江水库是广东省第一大水利工程,具有发电、防洪、灌溉等功能,常年保障粤港澳大湾区供水。以新丰江水库为研究区域,基于谷歌地球引擎(google earth engine
GEE),利用1993—2022年Landsat遥感影像,对比并选取随机森林法,识别水库长时间序列面积变化特征,研究其主要驱动因素。结果表明:(1)随机森林法对比水体指数法具有更高的准确性,总体精度达97.01%;(2)水库水体面积总体呈稳定增长后波动下降,永久性水体占比为69%,水库部分边缘区域水陆交替显著;(3)降水是水体面积增长的直接驱动因素,而气温对水域面积产生间接的负向影响,植被覆盖度表现为不显著的正向作用。研究成果可为保障用水安全、防范洪涝灾害、推动水库管理可持续发展提供参考。
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