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洪涝灾害造成的淹没区覆盖范围广、影响严重,灾前进行洪水预警评估能够在洪灾发生时及时疏散人员和保护财产。针对易受洪水侵袭的美国密西西比河圣路易斯流域,对比了不同复杂度、不同结构特点的Bucket、Simhyd、Smar、Hycy降雨径流模型,并分析了复杂度和结构对流域拟合结果的影响。通过对初始Bucket模型的不断改进,利用Bucket_3改进多箱体模型拟合流域水文,以KGE为模型拟合评价标准,利用2014—2016年的气象径流数据进行模型参数率定,校准精度为0.82;预估2016—2018年的径流数据,精度可达0.79,能很好地识别异常径流的出现,达到洪水灾前预警的目的。
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